TCRs, my own trading notes are at close of this report. The following material & accompanying video are shattering for "the ordinary guy" and professional investors. -- Thom Calandra]
TCRs, a just-concluded talking-heads webinar about gold and silver is what the portfolio doctor ordered. It is not what western governments, central and commercial banks and blue-chip investors designed.
Five self-made investors spend 90 minutes s-p-e-l-l-i-n-g out how western governments are wittingly and not-so awarely igniting gold, silver prices and dousing their currencies and sovereign bonds.
Their 6-month price projections for “monetary metals” in every currency are in the shock-awe slot: $7,000 or better gold; $50 or better silver.
As importantly, the group, bereft of corporate cue cards, blueprint a flowchart that connects China’s yuan, oil prices, trade pacts, Russia and the other BRIC backers directly to burdensome U.S. Treasury debt, the for now ever-rising U.S. dollar, the Shanghai bullion market and a “whale” of a gold-call options buyer.
We also must tag: gold-contract deliveries; silver supply shortfalls; a war premium; Dow-gold ratios & gold-silver ratios; specific mining stocks; and the investing commodities “casino” to come. All with nary a mention of inflation and just a sprinkling of U.S. national elections in 6 1/2 months.
The best part about the discussion this morning? It’s now an on-demand video, for free; so you need not take my word for it. Register here for free re-run please.
“Gold. The Real Thing” takeaways:
— “Gold has been reinvented, no longer just an inflation hedge, it is now a sovereign insurance policy.” — Simon Catt, London banker, who assembled the five.
— “How risk free (is) the U.S. Treasury market is? The long-debt cycle (indicates) the gold price needs to go to at least $6,500 (an ounce) to justify Treasury (debt) load.” — Luke Gromen. “My base case is 7k to 10k at the end of the cycle.” Gold Wednesday is $2,395 an ounce.
“The Shanghai (metals exchange) gold market is going to turn into a casino. The Chinese can’t buy bitcoin. The Chinese love to bet.” — Pierre Lassonde
— China is the world’s largest gold producer at 370 million tonnes per year, with Russia and Australia tied as the second largest gold producers at approximately 310 metric tons per year. Russia, overcoming U.S. sanctions of some $300 billion worth, is using the rouble, oil-shipping insurance and gold to boost its economy. China with its yuan is buying more gold than any nation and transacting in yuan as it sells its U.S. Treasurys.
— The world’s major central banks have turned into net sellers of U.S. Treasurys.
“Something is going to break in the metals (markets). I’m afraid the (futures exchange) COMEX will change the rules (for silver) deliveries). We only mine 800 million ounces a year.” — Eric Sprott
Eric, speaking from the Caribbean, named specific miners and explorers he backs. He also mentioned GATA.org and has been backing Gthe Gold Antitrust Action Committee since 1999 or so. See Thom Calandra and GATA.org’s new donation and half-price The Calandra Report offer please.
Other miners, developers and roy-cos in their mixes? Another is … well, watch the video, TCRs; it is worth a viewing on many fronts: education, 6-month and long-range forecasts (both shockers to some, mais pas moi), global metals dynamics and government risk. Each iof the talking heads put their leading holdings and reasonings on their southern and northern crosses.
The talking heads see fiscal chaos, government upheavals and maybe elections violence in the West. “All of them good for monetary metals,” says Michael Oliver, the technical analyst.
— Gold has become an oil currency. Oil is the world’s leading export. The oil market is 12 to 14 times larger than gold, so as more oil is traded in currencies other than U.S. dollars, demand for gold rises.
Luke Gromen explains the BRICS+ (Brazil, China, India, etc.) and the trading bloc’s adoption of gold over USD as its reserve asset:
“As Chinese people buy record amounts of gold (as is happening), and energy suppliers sell energy in yuan and then discharge yuan net surpluses in gold, gold prices rise in yuan terms, increasing the yuan-denominated wealth of energy supplier FX reserves, allowing them to buy still more yuan-denominated Chinese goods.” — Luke Gromen of Forest For The Trees
Michael Oliver, founder & chief analyst at Momentum Structural Analysis, marked two opportunities with gold and silver.
“Silver: The outcome is dramatic and much of it occurs in the next two quarters. We expect that before the 2024 [United States] election there’s a solid chance silver will be well above its $50 [per ounce] price highs of the past 50 years.”
Michael says “we’re entering the acceleration cycle” of monetary metals — i.e., gold, silver, maybe industrial copper.
One more thing — as the 90 minutes cover this looming acceleration of already vibrant gold, silver, copper prices in 2024. Further, possibly 50% and greater price gains for metals, and soon, 5x and greater boosts for sloven and lagging mining stocks, will be rapid: in the next six months before U.S. elections, and then for another several years of a rare, extended commodities up-cycle.
Watch the video this evening. Before we have another HAPPY GOLD FRIDAY occurrence.
Arlington Group, Simon’s London firm, and Mining Network staged the Real Thing event.
Eric Sprott, with a reportedly billion-dollar family office fund, founded Sprott Securities and Sprott Asset Management. Eric is a large investor in silver, gold explorers and actual bullion.
Pierre Lassonde is founder of the world’s largest gold royalty company, Franco Nevada FNV.
Ned Naylor-Leyland, fund manager of the Gold & Silver Fund at Jupiter Asset Management in London, is a silver bull.
Luke Gromen of “Forest For The Trees,” connects the dots of why U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve policy conflicts with the BRIC nations (Brazil, India, China, Saudi Arabia, etc.) goal to create an alternative to U.S. dollar reserves — via gold, local currency trade pacts and crude-oil sales and purchases.
Michael Oliver, founder of Momentum Structural Analysis, is a technical analyst. Michael is exacting with metrics that measure “the debt bubble.”
Thanks. Simon Catt of Arlington Group Asset Management.
5 Talking Heads Now Online & Free
* Trading notes: This morning (Wednesday April 17), I completed NYSE and Canada orders to buy more Metalla Royalty & Streaming MTA, more EMX Royalty EMX and more F3 Uranium. FUU. I also purchased more Elemental-Altus Royalties ELE, As indicated last week, I (today) got one order completed to sell approx. $3,500 of Ivanhoe Mines IVN IVPAF; our position is now approx. 79,000 shares. I will sell another $8,000 worth if the rising IVN price continues to cooperate. I also have orders in to sell another $900 or so of Ivanhoe Electric IE.
Thursday April 18 update: I bought yet more Metalla after seeing its royalty alert for 3 properties this morning. The NSRs and GVRs (gross value royalty) are for Tocantinzinho | Endeavor | Côté.
I completed sale of $8,000 of the Ivanhoe Mines tagged just above; I completed sale of the Ivanhoe Electric. As indicated, we own plenty — all told for IVN IVPAF and IE, approx. $1.2 million USD worth, some held since 2003.
By the way, the image here of moi holding that Eagle Gold Mine (Yukon) gold bar 2 years ago at Victoria Gold‘s mill and refinery was worth about $1 million USD at the time ($1,750 an ounce); the same dore bar is now worth about 35% more USD, or euro, or yen, or CAD at $2,400 an ounce.
— Thom Calandra
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Thom Calandra is a writer and an investor. Research and material are meant as editorial opinion. He is not a professional investment adviser. Please do not consider his reporting as a recommendation to buy or sell securities.