THREE TAKES: London banker
Simon Catt's Short-Call on Bitcoin vs. Gold;
Jim Anthony on mining stocks' splendid start
to 2025; and my own 'reciprocal' view.
“In 2024, the U.S. Treasury refinanced $10 trillion of maturing debt by issuing $26 trillion of bills and bonds. More than 84% of that paper was short-term bills with a maturity of 6 months or less. The shorter the term, the more like printing cash. Another $10 trillion rolls in 2025.” — Jim Anthony, a co-founder of Canada copper and gold mine developer Seabridge Gold SA. [More below] *
Thom Calandra shares his four largest positions heading into 2025:
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The Future of Money: Bitcoin or Gold? |
While Americans buy crypto, China can’t get enough gold – official purchases by The People’s Bank of China are, according to Goldman Sachs, only a fraction of their actual gold accumulation, says Simon Catt at Arlington Group in London.
| Perhaps it’s because I was born in 1971, not in the ’90s or later, that I ‘missed’ crypto. I’ve been watching Bitcoin rise from just a few thousand dollars per coin to its current heights. Bitcoin is a risk asset, closely correlated with Nasdaq, and both reached all-time highs in December 2024.
In contrast, gold and silver have no such correlation. They stand apart as safe havens, poised to serve investors well in the event of a sell-off in risk assets triggered by rising treasury yields. |
Bitcoin: a short squeezeDo you remember the Hunt Brothers’ silver squeeze? Between 1979 and March 1980, the Hunt brothers accumulated 200 million ounces of silver—9% of the 2.2 billion ounces ever mined. Most commentators believed the Hunts controlled 50% of the actively traded silver market. The Hunt brothers drove the silver price from $6 in 1979 to $50 an ounce by January 1980. However, on March 27th, 1980, they missed a margin call, and the silver price collapsed from $50 to $11 an ounce. MicroStrategy (SYMBOL: MSTR) owns just over 2% of the total available Bitcoin. What remains unclear is the Bitcoin free float, the identities of its major holders and how they might respond to a 2008/9-style liquidation of risk assets. What we do know is that Bitcoin fell 80% between its 2021 peak and its 2022 low after the crypto exchange FTX went bankrupt. MicroStrategy can arguably be considered a ‘meme stock’ due to Saylor’s cult-like following. During the Covid-19 pandemic, the rise of meme stocks like GameStop, AMC Entertainment and Bed Bath & Beyond showcased similar trends. Three months after peaking in 2021–2022, these stocks lost an average of 68% of their value. In 2025, I expect blind faith in cryptocurrencies — and in their self-appointed spiritual leader, Michael Saylor — to be shattered, as bond vigilantes turn off the supply of easy money. |
2025: Short Bitcoin, Long Precious MetalsI recently bought MicroStrategy March $200 puts options, anticipating that gravity will soon take hold. As Bitcoin corrects alongside Nasdaq, I expect MicroStrategy shares to fade under a blizzard of new stock issuance, falling below the value of its Bitcoin holdings. On the other hand, I am buying more Mithril Silver & Gold (MTH trades in Melbourne and in Canada) for my family at current prices around AUD$0.40–0.50. I’m optimistic about record-high silver and gold prices in 2025. Australia based Mithril is accelerating exploration at its high-grade Copalquin Project in Mexico, following results like the 7 metres at 144 g/t gold and 1,162 g/t silver from just 18 metres depth announced in September. I believe the combination of rising gold and silver prices and Mithril’s planned quadrupling of drilling metres in 2025 will richly reward shareholders. By Christmas 2025, I anticipate my short bet on Bitcoin and my long bet on Mithril will have delivered — and Santa will still be hard at work for another year. |
* More from Jim Anthony:
“Did something change for gold stocks on the first trading day of 2025? Gold, gold stocks and broad equity markets started up strongly this a.m. Blue-chip stocks turned down and closed red but gold stocks continued strong. Gold stocks didn’t turn into just stocks and followed gold higher today.”
— Thom Calandra
Thom Calandra is a writer and an investor. Research and material are meant as editorial opinion. He is not a professional investment adviser. Please do not consider his reporting as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. The Calandra Report, in its 13th year, offers a one-price, $139 yearly fee for all newcomers. Earlier subscribers keep their original cost. Sob stories listened to. No refunds after three weeks of service. Exceptions: groceries, mistaken ambitions.
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