“We are in a sovereign debt crisis and we need to reset and there are only two candidates: gold and Bitcoin.”
IVANHOE MINES | ALAMOS GOLD | SOUND CURRENCIES | MELT-UP LOOMS
Ivanhoe Mines staged a dramatic Q1 unveiling this past week, and its shares followed suit. The stock rose all day and closed a penny or two beneath its daily high.
The Congo copper and zinc producer and South Africa Platreef multi-metals mine developer bested nearly all analysts’ estimates for most metrics: Kamoa-Kakula copper produced, cash flow, net income ($120 million), lower mining costs and more hydroelectric power.
Most categories also were record highs for Robert Friedland and team’s Ivanhoe IVN IVPAF.
The Q1 release is textbook, all inclusive Ivanhoe. A day later, the company followed with April’s record copper output at Kamoa-Kakula.
A one-hour conference call and accompanying graphics, executives’ comments and analyst questions are worth the 59 minutes of viewing.
Each of Ivanhoe’s top execs expressed clearly or sotto-voce their belief that the miner’s outperformance and earnings visibility will run for many years. [We at home hold approx. 77,000 Ivanhoe shares., some hearkening to 2003.]
Robert Friedland, founder and co-chairman, vowed “the Congo will produce millions of tons more of copper that it is not producing now.”
The longtime copper stalwart — “Go long what China is short of.” — answered one analyst’s question about Ivanhoe’s $50 million ongoing exploration at 2,400-sq-km Western Foreland license at the close of the call. Western Foreland adjoins expanding Kamoa-Kakula Copper Complex.
“I think (regarding exploration) you should exercise patience … only God knows what can be found in the Western Forelands, and She may change Her mind.”
Western Forelands has 10 to 11 drills turning for Ivanhoe. An independently assessed resource update will publish in the next two to three weeks. I think IVN IVPAF shares might lift to all-time highs with those results. Or even ahead of their release.
The Ivanhoe Mines earnings call is here.
Kamoa-Kakula signed an offtake agreement and advanced payment facility for 80% of the copper anodes produced by the on-site smelter across a three-year span, the company reports.
The stock looks poised to regain its all-time high in coming weeks, perhaps when Western Forelands’ new resource estimate is stated in two to three weeks. That high point, May 2024, is 40% from the current level.
TCRs, hold on (later this week) for the reasoning behind what I see as a gap-up leap in mining share values across the board. When the melt-up occurs, I believe we'll see a rush of new investors to mining stocks (producers and feasibility-ready developers), to bullion ETFs (including platinum's PPLT) and to repositories in the form of closed-end funds, such as Sprott's Physical Gold & Silver Trust CEF/CEF.A.
— Larry Lepard‘s book, THE BIG PRINT (on Amazon, self published), came out in February. His thesis is that only two solid currencies exist for most investors: gold/silver and Bitcoin.
(I add real estate, platinum and fuel/oil to the ‘sound’ roster. Also foodstuffs/agricultural tracts.)
“It’s all happening (and) I just don‘t see how the stock market doesn‘t fall apart. China is pushing back hard … I don‘t know why (the White House) is so aggressive. This is a mess with the dollar; down more than 10 percent in a quarter. … They broke the system.”
Larry says he handles about $100 million for clients and for a fund. He’s 67 and is confident he is on the winning sides of bullion and Bitcoin.
Sovereign currencies, he notes, are failing … “gold is up 60% in a year and that does not happen — it is a signal that the (monetary) system is starting to fail.”
“We have to have another print. The only way we get out of this deficit spending is with another printing (dramatic rise yet again in money supply).” By then, the debased dollar’s reduced purchasing power will have taken gold, and Bitcoin, to new highs — all amid inflation, a slack economy and stock and bond markets-mayhem.
[See my The Big Print take at thomcalandra.com.]
The Big Print: What Happened To America And How Sound Money Will Fix It.
Read this and you might see why I think these are all pointing to M&A, or an asset sale or a transaction that could be chalking on a board room’s chalkboard, for a few of our TCR preferred miners, such as Banyan Gold BYN, Snowline Gold SGD — both in Yukon; Xtra-Gold XTG in Africa; Vista Gold in northern Australia; West Vault Mining WVM in Nevada; and a handful of others I do not track.
Royalty-co mergers or outright sales are also in the cards: I own EMX Royalty and Elemental-Altus Royalties ELE. [Of these above, I own all but for Snowline.]
Here is Kristie’s article:
Signs of more M&A to come
— Alamos Gold AGI suffered a rare earnings and gold output miss this week. CEO John McCluskey acknowledged reasons for the miss, the first time Alamos has stumbled on guidance for 16 quarters at the Ontario and Mexico gold producer.
“How do you run a gold company if you don’t believe in gold.” — John McCluskey, Alamos Gold
Thom Calandra is a writer and an investor. Research and material are meant as editorial opinion. He is not a professional investment adviser. Please do not consider his reporting as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. The Calandra Report, in its 13th year, offers a one-price, $139 yearly fee for all newcomers. Earlier subscribers keep their original cost. Sob stories listened to. No refunds after three weeks of service. Exceptions: