Battered Gold: Wave Strategist Proves Spot On

TCRs, Elliott Wave Trader’s Avi Gilburt was on the money with his gold-pullback forecast this week.

We published it for our The Calandra Report  audience (below again).

Gold futures ($3,131, down $35) Thursday 11 am. ET and the spot price, and the GLD ETF ($286) that Avi tracks, are falling more than 1% Thursday after the U.S. tariff “rules” pronounced by President Donald Trump.

Silver is down 7%. Crude oil futures are losing 7%. The Dow is down 1,500 points, Nasdaq even more on a percentage basis — almost 5% — price here. Copper is losing almost 4%. Bitcoin is tumbling, too.

“I was just looking for a near term (gold) pullback in the short term – posted an update to our members last night entitled ‘gold looks toppy.’  — Avi Gilburt, ElliottWaveTrader.net

Avi this morning to our TCRs: “Support on GLD – which is what most follow – is 268-273 . . .  as long as (it is) over that, one more rally can still be seen before a much bigger pullback down towards the 230-250 region.  If we break (below) 268 before new highs, then the bigger pullback has already begun.”

The gold price, given its March gains to almost $3,200, continues to exceed the performance of blue chip stocks. I see the price recovering Thursday after a steep decline.

I believe a reciprocal action for bullion — gold climbs as most everything else in the world takes a beating, attracting first-time gold (and silver) buyers — kicks in.

Here is the earlier The Calandra Report with Avi’s piece, “Gold Is In The Final Stages Of Its Decade-Long Rally.” 

The illustration above is a sample ElliotWaveTrader.net graphic and not a real-time analytic.

Gold, Sound Money, Zürich & + – Waves 

A fractal aficionado with a reputation for timing and independence is warning of choppy gold investing days ahead.

 

Avi Gilburt is part of ElliottWaveTrader.net. Avi agreed to let us share his “Gold Is In The Final Stages Of Its Decade-Long Rally” with our TCRs.

Takeaway: 

“So, if you are looking to central bank buying as an indication of the strength of the market, you may want to consider that this is now evidence that we are likely approaching the end of this 10-year bull market in gold. While I still think there is some strength left in this market over the coming year or so, it is now time to be sleeping with one eye open towards the exit door should this top be struck even earlier than I expect.” Article here.

TCRs, if you are like me, and I think many of you are, you have 50% and greater gains in physical gold trusts, in coins, bars, and of course in the best mid-cap and small-cap miners, Alamos Gold AGI — CEO John McCluskey in Zürich — among them.

[Copper and zinc, too — à la Ivanhoe Mines IVN. Ivanhoe says it is starting Zambia exploration with 7,750 square kilometers of land — seeking to extend the Central African Copperbelt. Here.]

“There’s not too many companies that started out as a little penny stock exploration company and grew to the scale that we are now.” — John McCluskey

TCRs, I am selling about a tenth of my AGI — part of stock, some with 80%  gains, held since the mid-to-late 2010s.  I also will lighten up fractionally on my NYSE gold trust: Sprott’s CEF.

 

Other views: 

 

— My own view here at home is that I still see gold adding to its purchasing price power in the coming two to three years.

I see a deconstructing U.S. dollar leading us, as author-money manager Larry Lepard explains in “The Big Print,” to a world that values “sound money” such as gold, silver, platinum, real estate, oil and yes, Bitcoin — values physical and digital forms of physical holdings well above paper currencies. (More about a two-tier exchange system, akin to what the BRIC nations have been executing, to come.)

 

— Mining Forum Europe‘s gold believers weigh in with their pro-bullion takes from Zürich this week. Thank you, again, Kristie Batten and Tim Wood of Denver Gold Group. The piece here. 

 

Takeaway:

“We’ve been buying gold for quite a few years. In our view, it earnestly started in 2021, which is a renewed commodity super cycle. The $3,000 mark is a great threshold that once it is crossed, you’re going to get more and more people reluctantly beginning to buy gold. We think that this is the point at which you’re going to start seeing more and more folks reluctantly getting into gold. So for us, US$3100, when we look back on it, will be a great entry point for us.” — Generalist investor, Wasif Latif of Sarmaya Partners

More to come, TCRs. Tiny gold explorers, that I track (and in some cases own), most recently Banyan Gold BYN in Yukon, are falling 1 % to 4% during this week’s gold decline. This piece likely nudged Tara Christie‘s gold deposit developer this week — Jeff Clark to a Gold Advisor audience.

 

Banyan Gold has a 7 million gold-ounce deposit in the Yukon, the 5th largest open pit resource in North America. It’s adjacent to Hecla’s project, with infrastructure in place and permitting ongoing, run by an M.A.Sc. trained mining engineer. 

 

I have been buying BYN for years, most times happily but having gone through an awful decline, prompted in part by the collapse of Yukon’s Eagle Gold Mine.

 

This update will be posted at thomcalandra.com.

 

— Thom Calandra 

Thom Calandra is a writer and an investor. Research and material are meant as editorial opinion. He is not a professional investment adviser. Please do not consider his reporting as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. The Calandra Report, in its 13th year, offers a one-price, $139 yearly fee for all newcomers. Earlier subscribers keep their original cost. Sob stories listened to. No refunds after three weeks of service. Exceptions:groceries, mistaken ambitions.