Reciprocal Gold Enjoys Dramatic Day

‘When financial asset returns are zero or close to zero, the return on (the physical asset) gold is 20 percent on average yearly. Compound that.’ — Sun Valley Gold fund manager

“Liquidity is a coward; it disappears at the first sign of trouble.” — the late strategist Barton Biggs

Also: Friday update -- gold and miners 
surge. See indexes. Gold new highs -- $3,251.
Ivanhoe Mines Platreef update below.*

Back to the reciprocal gold thesis that Idaho strategist Peter G. Palmedo pioneered with the now-deceased global markets analyst Barton Biggs at least 22 years ago; ’tis a long time coming.

Today-Thursday April 10 2025 is a reciprocal gold day. Put simply and shown in the chart here: gold (and mining stocks) rise, reciprocating 3-plus decades of Fortune 1000 gains (and bond market gains, too).

Only gold, silver and mining stocks are rising; the downward black line is the U.S. stock market.

Thursday’s gold futures contract (continuous) is gaining $98 USD, or 3.4%, to an all-time high. The broad Russell 3000 Index of company stocks is down 4.8%. The Dow Jones Total Stock Market Index is down 5.6%.

Everything paper is down — The Dow 30 losing 1,800 points; government bond prices down; the U.S. dollar down dramatically against most currencies. Even Bitcoin, for which we make the case that investors will start gauging BTC as digital “sound currency” vs. the papered alternatives, is pounded today.

Gold, and silver, platinum, globe-building copper, are all rising smartly. Gold, and silver, platinum, globe-building copper, are all rising smartly. Mining stocks, the largest of the producers, are rising 5% as a group — GDX ETF.

Days like this the algorithmic program traders do not allow often.

Background at The Calandra Report here: 30 Years Making Case For Patient Gold

Let’s hope that western investors see the headline — GOLD AT NEW HIGH AS STOCKS PLUMMET — call their advisers and tell ’em to add physical gold, or ETF gold, or closed-end gold and silver (CEF on NYSE), or riskier mining stocks

Peter Palmedo, for background, runs a gold fund out of Sun Valley, Idaho, and he is the 44% owner of West Vault Mining WVM WMVDF. (I own WVM shares and have for years now.) The vault theme = the Nevada permitted and shovel-ready mine at West Vault’s Tonopah concession = figuratively the same as owning gold in the ground, just far cheaper than buying bullion.

Peter, a so-called quant, also chairs West Vault; another large stake the 68-year-old strategist has in the Sun Valley Gold Fund is Vista Gold VGZ.

This is just a reminder, TCRs. Gold’s legacy as a sound currency in paupering paper times, as we seem to be suffering regarding money printing worldwide, is I believe secure.

* Note: Copper miner Ivanhoe Mines’ profitable investors see that its copper, tariff free, has freedom to travel the world. A plus: IVN’s DRC Congo anode-producing blister smelter kicks in this summer at Kamoa-Kakula.

“There are no tariffs whatsoever on our copper sales … or on any other metals,” Ivanhoe’s chairman, Robert Friedland, says. “We sell our copper on the international market to the highest bidder.”

Aside from the Kamoa-Kakula copper (and its Kipushi Mine zinc), my takeaway on why IVN is my largest stake and has been since 2010 or so: Platreef in South Africa.

Platreef was my first look-see — back in 2003. Private Platreef is now public and has grown; the long-running development project adds a layer of platinum, palladium, gold, nickel, $5,500-ounce rhodium, and copper, to Ivanhoe-branded copper and zinc in the Congo.

The question I get from TCRs: is it cheap enough to buy again?

For me it is. The $11 billion market value, not counting cash and convertible debt, is approx. 30% off its price from year-end 2024. The Congo copper and zinc is immensely profitable and showing consistency across every financial metric.

Platreef? Largely ignored by investors; production likely will start toward year-end. The platinum-group metals ore body is an average of 26 meters thick, 9 kilometers long and largely flat. It is advertised as being “completely mechanized.”

I have heard founder Robert Friedland say “nobody will lift anything heavier than a pencil during mining.” Like slicing a Bushveld platinum complex wedding cake, I imagine. The Bushveld is said to contain approx. three-quarters of the globe’s known platinum and half of its palladium.

So, 150 million ounces of precious metals, including gold. Profits margin thruster: a crushed South Africa rand currency — 7 Rand to the dollar way back in the late 1990s to almost 20 rand on the dollar now. Costs are in rand. Future revenues are in dollars.

Sister company Ivanhoe Electric IE on NYSE, trades at a fraction of Ivanhoe Mines’ multi-billion-dollar market value. Its exploration and development projects include tariff-proof USA (Arizona, Utah, etc.) and Saudi Arabia.

IEjpeg — Ivanhoe Electric shares earlier this week. (*Click for larger image*.)

The stock leaped higher earlier in the week and Thursday is giving up half those gains. I own it and Ivanhoe Mines.

— Xtra-Gold Resources XTG, the Ghana profitable producer and explorer that is our second-largest mining holding, is trading in the USA as XTGRF and paused this week by Canadian regulators who are ascertaining the company’s domicile: Canada or foreign issuer (British Virgin Islands).

I expect (but cannot guarantee) the administrative matter will be settled by next week. XTGRF shares are rising this week to 14-year highs — albeit with light volume.

EMX Royalty — The company just received a property payment and is reducing long-term debt. It is making a $10 million principal payment toward its senior secured term loan facility due to Franco-Nevada. “Following this early principal payment, EMX’s total long-term debt outstanding will be reduced from US$35 million to US$25 million,” EMX reports. See release.

Added: Saturday April 12:

TCRs, allow me to bite my tongue when I say, for those of us who have been decades-long patient — see: Reciprocal Gold at The Calandra Report — I aspire to hold tight to our largest mining investments here at home: Ivanhoe Mines IVN | Xtra-Gold Resources XTG | Alamos Gold AGI (sold a fraction the other day) | EMX Royalty EMX | Banyan Gold BYN | Sprott Physical Gold & Silver Trust CEF | Aberdeen Platinum Trust PPLT,

I see another 10 or so smaller stakes here at home, including Ivanhoe Electric, Elemental Royalties, Integra Resources, Avino Silver & Gold Mines, Ridgeline Minerals, Kenorland Resources, Koryx Copper, CanAlaska Uranium, F3 and F4 Uranium. Summa Silver. Tiny Val-d’Or Mining, C3 Metals … and the shovel-ready Hasbrouck deposit in Nevada for West Vault Mining.

At some point, I will be consolidating a few of these, reducing that list by half or more — but not today.

— Compounding Gold at The Calandra Report: 30 Years Making Case For Patient Gold

— Thom Calandra

Thom Calandra is a writer and an investor. Research and material are meant as editorial opinion. He is not a professional investment adviser. Please do not consider his reporting as a recommendation to buy or sell securities. The Calandra Report, in its 13th year, offers a one-price, $139 yearly fee for all newcomers. Earlier subscribers keep their original cost. Sob stories listened to. No refunds after three weeks of service. Exceptions:groceries, mistaken ambitions.