Mining On Safari | Russia Holiday

TCRs, a discussion this coming 
Wednesday will raise 
questions about the health 
of metals equities, which 
are perennially ailing. I 
am as you know still a believer 
in the secular up-cycle for 
most physical metals. Join us!
 
More below.  -- Thom Calandra *
Kenya: Maasai Mara National Reserve
Kenya: Hippo
Safari camp entrance
On safari: Posing
Kazan is the third largest city of Russia, capital of Tatarstan
Join Us This Week: Gold Bull Or Pink Elephant?

 

THE HOLIDAY SNAPS from The Calandra Report  subscribers here are fun, fabulous.

What is happening with metals equities the past two weeks is NOT.

An interlude: images here are from Italia subscriber Luca Bitonti, who is traveling in Russia; and U.S. road-show organizer Danny Gravelle, also on holiday — in Kenya and on safari and balooning. I will be away a week from today for 8 or 9 days (family break in Hudson Valley and Adirondacks, N.Y.) — yet always pingable via email. — Thom Calandra

Yet when we look at, say, a leading junior mining stock index, and the major miners, too, what we see is a disheartening week of declines; yet over the past (pick a span) month, the direction is all up.

See the charts here (GDXJ — VanEck)

One week of mining stock losses: GDXJ
One month of mining stock gains GDXJ


I THINK
(and pray) this live and free chat will be worthy: a
one-hour discussion staged by 6ix (to the left here) looks to raise grave questions about the health of metals equities, which are perennially ailing.

*Poat-op: 334 attended live! 
Here is the tape via YouTube.

I am as you know still a believer in the secular up-cycle for most physical metals. Even today-Tuesday — I bought more Ivanhoe Mines IVN (more below) at yet lower prices. I also will resume buying shares of Aberdeen Platinum Trust PPLT (below as well).

I think it is that simple. We will discuss this tomorrow via live and free video.

Join us at noon ET Wednesday with Brien, Rick and Dan … et moi.  See info here please.

Wednesday July 24 2024: We will discuss gold, silver, copper

 

Your skeptical, scorching questions are welcome, and important.

Also important this week

 

Feedback is coming in hot and heavy about Yukon’s Victoria Gold and the in-limbo Eagle Gold Mine.The stock is down, up, holding. Is it recovering? I own it and was buying VGCX VITFF through mid-week last week.

“Disheartening because there may be some exaggeration by certain parties,” says independent analyst and geologist Eric Lemieux, who works out of Québec. “A ‘call to halt mining’ in Yukon is scary.”
Mount Kiliminjaro sunset from Kenya

 

As stated here, the idea of buying shares of VGCX, to average down or to start a cheap stake in a real but possibly flawed producing gold mine is ultra-rischioso, as we say in Italian. Discouraging news and other reports continue  since the June heap leach pad rupture.

 

My take: aside from the cost of possible litigation, remediation, demanding lenders and the chance that Yukon and federal Canada regulators will shutter the mine for a span that drains Victoria of available cash — aside from that — I join several pro miners I know who are willing to risk small funds to own a gold mine that was running a 175,000-ounce  yearly pace for approx. $46 million USD at current market levels (not counting debt, available cash).

 

GoviEx Uranium: Our coup-torn Niger (and peaceful Zambia) uranium developer GXU published its strident letter to shareholders. See letter — company Chairman Govind Friedland.

Niger’s military government seized the GoviEx development lock, stock and barrel. GoviEx: “the decision to withdraw our mining rights is especially perplexing given the implications for any future developers, who would effectively need to start from scratch.”

There is a case to be made here for future litigation, maybe the next time Niger needs to appeal to capital markets for loans via debt.

Madaouela, the project, became one of the largest and most promising uranium deposits in Africa and probably across much of the world in large part because of GoviEx’s non-stop development there the past 8 or 10 years.

I asked GoviEx CEO Daniel Major about next steps. He says today, “We have to formally go through an amicable agreement process. If we are not successful then we can consider legal action.”

 

I own the shares, which as you know are under water.

 

Shipping stocks: a fresh Union (India) budget plan just aired Tuesday-July 23, 2024, includes subsidies, port channel upgrades and several other boosters for the maritime business.

 

Shipping stocks are rising dramatically. My DHT Maritime Holdings DHT just eclipsed $12 a share, as I continue to sell chunks of the NYSE stock — profitably.
(I have been shuttling all sales the past two weeks into shares of Africa’s Ivanhoe Mines IVN IVPAF, its stock rattled by lower and lower copper prices; and Aberdeen Physical Platinum Trust PPLT. I am upbeat about Q2 numbers coming July 31, 2024 — as I am about Q2 for Alamos Gold AGI*, also due to report — July 31.)

 

[* Re: Alamos GoldIsland Gold Deposit — heady, double-digit grades throughout — just released. Look for an outsized boost to reserves and resources there in Ontario. See report please.]
Back to the shipping views.
This today from Avraam Gabrielidis, a shipping aficionado and investor who from Greece counsels us about DHT:
“Today I sold the shares of DHT (at $11.88) that I bought at
10.75. The company behaves extremely well despite the low spot rates.
This performance implies that the buyers are expecting rates to increase
The only reason that I am sounding  a bit skeptical is the fact that
rates for the 2nd quarter look much lower compared with rates the same
period last year when the price of DHT was about 15% lower from current
levels. Always looking to buy it back.” — Avraam Gabrielidis

DHT already has its biz outlook, current spot and contract lease rates for its crude oil carriers published — here. Its Q2 numbers will be out August 8, 2024.

More images

 

Kazan
Rural Kazan
Kenya Safari
Luca Bitonti of Italia in Kazan, Russia, bush.
‘Careful with that camera. human.’
Pounce
Danny Gravelle: ‘Safari porn?’

— Thom Calandra


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Thom Calandra is a writer and an investor. Research and material are meant as editorial opinion. He is not a professional investment adviser. Please do not consider his reporting as a recommendation to buy or sell securities.